Palpara Merchants

Substantive Finance

Fireworks or a Dud?

On this day, July 1, of last year, 2010, the S&P made what is now the 52 week low. We rallied after that for exactly one year, with only three pullbacks. This demonstrates the markets tendency in the past two years to remain sticky to the upside. The market breaks an obvious support level, then rallies to new highs and keeps on going. This is the pattern that we’ve seen since March 2009. I don’t expect this time to be any different. I’m not looking for any pullbacks to buy. The only way to get in is to buy small and hope for the pullback that never comes. I’m sticking with my bar-bell approach and buying torrid growth stocks and defensives, but not buying anything in between so high cash levels can be maintained. Unfortunately, this may not be the best way to out perform the market. But it’s really not trending right now so out performance may be difficult for most traders, as big gains disappear if you hold one day too many. If you’re dealing with smaller portfolios under $500,00. There is just no way to outperform with this strategy in the short term. But this strategy will outperform in a longer time frame of 1-2 years if the market remains in this character of straight up, straight down, with the primary trend pointing up. Today will be 5 days in a row of around 100 point gains on the Dow. Too many traders have too much cash on the sidelines to act as fuel to this fire. This 4th of July will probably turn out like last year, with one more buyable pullback before another move straight up, blowing past any resistance points more than a week old. That seems to be the markets attention span these days. We have to throw out last weeks’ support and resistance lines and form new ones every few days with candle stick analysis, not trend-line analysis. I doubt this is new money coming into the market- it’s just cash that traders have from selling stocks as they broke down last week. Now we are putting that cash back to work on the same stocks that were breaking down, now at higher prices as they are breaking out or have already broken out. This market loves short term fixes.

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