Palpara Merchants

Substantive Finance

Today’s Assessment: High Levels of Caution and Cash Warranted

All the major indices and sector ETFs had a break away gap up today. Oddly, retail and oil names both led the pack. This is counterintuitive as higher oil should mitigate any tailwinds the retail sector has. However, higher oil is consistent with my previous analysis on oil prices. While the major indices sustained their gains, most of the market leaders showed signs of slowing momentum and most have formed potential reversal patterns and/or are headed into major resistance. At the top of my leader list was FCX- gapped up, on large volume. FCX bucks the trend of most other leaders. This one remains strong. However, next on the leader board was DECK. It gapped up but hit major resistance at $96. While it’s not a prominent reversal pattern, there is evidence of selling into strength around $96 that should be noted. Next up is HAL- no signs of slowing momentum here. This is in blue sky territory. Again, HAL bucks the trend. WYNN is next on the leader board. Same story as HAL. Next up on the leader board is GOOG. This stock is obeying resistance at $550. GOOG is showing signs of slowing momentum. Selling this name is a safe bet. Next on the leader board is CLF. This gapped up and traded higher, but higher prices were rejected at $98. Selling this name is also a good idea. Next up is WFC- similar pattern as CLF, a gravestone doji. The interpretation of this pattern is that traders were selling into strength and buying pressure was not sufficient to keep prices near the higher end of the intraday range. Again, selling WFC is a good idea. Next up is CMI- while this did hold the gap up, prices closed where they opened but traded higher than the open, so anyone that bought today is a loser. Selling this name after it’s monster run is a good idea. Next up is JPM- again gravestone doji, but no real uptrend to reverse, so there is less risk here. There’s just not a lot of potential for an up or down move in JPM. Selling here isn’t prudent, neither is buying. Just watch this one for now. The next best performer was BHI- this is the opposite of a grave stone doji, a dragonfly doji, and selling this name is not prudent. Further upside is probable. BAC is next. It did nothing. Stochastics are rolling over so there is no reason to be buying or selling this name. AAPL is the next best performer. This is showing no signs of slowing down yet. Selling this name is not prudent. Further upside is possible. RUT-X, the Russell 2000, was the next best performer. This index is strong, but resistance is right over head. Buying in the small caps is a good indication of appetite for risk. I wouldn’t sell yet. SLB is next. This looks strong. No need to sell. NAZ, the Nasdaq 100 index, was next. This looks strong, but is right at resistance. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a reversal pattern tomorrow. CVX was next. Looks similar to the NAZ, strong, but resistance right overhead. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one come back to test this gap in the next few days. CAT was next- this is showing signs of a reversal as it formed a gravestone doji right at resistance at $113 and 3/4. Selling this is a good idea. WLT is next- held the 200dma. Not strong, but it’s closer to support than resistance. This is one stock that should be bought as it is right next to support. ESRX is next. This is similar to WLT. It can also be bought as it looks to be regaining the 200dma and has clear support at at $52 1/2. AMZN is next up- blue sky territory, but the gap up didn’t go anywhere and it was on below average volume. This name should be sold. CRM is up next- gravestone. Sell it. CSX is next- this actually looks really good as a break out candidate. But this means keeping a short time frame. CSX can be bought here but with a very tight stop. CMG looks good- blue sky. I wouldn’t sell this yet. S&P 500 is next. This looks like a great break out if you ignore resistance above 1350. I think ignoring the daily candle stick analysis is the safe approach. Focus on resistance. Sell it. XOM broke out. It can be bought. DJ-20 is next. Clean break out. It can be held, but not safe to buy. GS is next- looks ugly. Stay away from this. DJ-30 is next. It continues to expand upward, but resistance is right over head. I’d sell this and take profits. BMY is next. It looks strong. No need to sell this. I hate seeing defensive names like BMY look so strong while names like CAT look like sells. NFLX totally lost momentum. Sell it. ABT- again a defensive name that looks strong. I like the stock, I don’t like what it signifies. LULU is next. Exhibiting small reversal pattern as the close was lower than the open. UNP- reversal pattern potential. It didn’t make a lower low than yesterday, but gapped up, and sold off, closed lower than yesterday and on high volume. Sell it. IBM’s momentum got checked by a down grade. Sell it. VMW- gapped up and closed lower. Sell it. WLP- looks ugly. Obeying resistance. Sell it. HUM- see WLP. PFE- looks really ugly, but too late to sell. Sell it if it breaks $20. ISRG= U-G-L-Y. It should have been sold yesterday as it formed a clear reversal pattern. It was also one of the first stocks I follow to start breaking out. It was the first to reverse yesterday so I think that’s telling. Momentum is slowing. Time to take profits. High levels of cash and caution are warranted. However, a strong Non Farm Payroll tomorrow could render all this analysis useless, but with the 12 weeks in a row of 400K+ readings on weekly jobless claims, I doubt we’ll see a good number. It’s been a good run. I’ve raised a lot of cash and I will wait for new set up to deploy it.

Comments are closed.