ObamaCare will have the effect of introducing a European ideology of using the benefits of mass production to allow workers to have more leisure time instead of encouraging more consumption. This will allow consumption to be in equilibrium with safe level of resource extraction. Far too much evidence exists in favor of the idea that we as a race are consuming far more than the earth is willing to supply. A gut-check to consumption and an increase in leisure time will have demonstrable benefits to society over a longer time-horizon. The cost of the long term investment is a short term decrease in production and profits. This is a multiple lowering event and should start to be discounted in the stock market. Indeed, since the majority of ObamaCare changes won’t take effect until 2014, the market has not been discounting them yet. The market generally only looks out a year, year and a half. The fiscal drag should come into effect around the same time and will further lower margins and S&P 500 EPS. Liquidity can only take a market so far. The EWW (EWW) rollover shows what is happening to markets that aren’t juicing before the game (there’s a reason Lance won more times than any other human being- we all know the reason now, but at the time, we were duped into adoring this guy for achieving super-human feats). Allowing labor to escape the never-ending cycles of enduring different iterations of feudalism will undoubtedly increase the standard of living for a large percentage of the population and should be encouraged. However, the market needs to start respecting reality at some point, and then true price-discovery will be the valuation method for stocks, not algos set to SQUEEZE.
Shifting Excess Capacity Into More Leisure Time
May 26, 2013