We have discounted the facts:
USA consumes about 20 mbpd of crude oil. (OGJ link)
We have at most 480 mbrl crude in storage
We have another roughly 35 mbrl off shore TX (Bbg link)
That means we have about 10 and 3/4 days of crude supply.
We produce roughly 10 mbrl per day.
Saudi Arabia is in control of world crude price for the next decade.
Isis makes all its money selling crude on the black market (how about just stop selling them Toyotas?)
What’s not factored in:
The largesse of the great bailout (we saved the autos when we should have just cut the smallest one, Chrysler, and bailed out just GM so as not to send Ford’s suppliers under; now there are so many autos we have Volkswagon cheating and so many excess autos are getting into the hands of Isis enough to provide them a fleet of vehicles to assist them in their evildoing). Some of these autos have to go away.
The war in the Middle East re-conflict. Oil is difficult to get out for export.
Cyberwar fare becomes real, the government needs Watson to sort through big data and IBM becomes the next generation arms manufacturer. Warren buffett’s IBM stake soars.
The hackers that Russia has been training and then defect to do Bond villain stuff like Borris in Golden Eye get into a face off with USA like the Cuban missle crisis but with cyber nukes and this time Putin does what he probably wishes Kruschev did. I wonder if Putin is that crazy…
A beloved computer company is investigated for using the microphones and pictures of it’s devices when intimate sized groups of users are gathered in one location (check the banner add on your smart phone browser next time you at a party watching football on tv). In a Snowden like leak it is revealed that the iconic company was selling at a premium those advertisements that were based off real time interaction with friends; the product in the add being gently introduced to you in a hardly noticeable banner add. Products recommended to you by your friends are of more value so why not an add shown to you while you are having a good time with your friends? The stock of the famed empire crumble amidst the scandal.
A combo cyberwar and ground war completely shut the supply of oil off for two weeks and we consume our supply of oil in about 11 days in. The USA goes for 3 days with no crude oil to be had. The price of crude skyrockets as people bet in fear that the government is lying to them about when crude will be back on line but then price plummets after 3 days pass. Crude oil stays permanently low in a deflationary trap set by the Keynesionites. There are no more wars cause oil is cheap and plentiful and no one wants it.
None of this is priced in 🙂