Palpara Merchants

Substantive Finance

Sizing up and down the market

Some stocks I like and some I don’t:

Saint Joe ($JOE)-a real estate developer. Trades at 2 billion Dollar valuation. They could make tons and tons of money on developing Walton Beach/ Destin, Florida. But 45% of the shares are owned by a Berkowitz of Fairholm capital. He could unload his shares or do something with the company that’s not in the best interest of the shareholders. I’ll pass on $JOE for now.

$MITK, $ECOM, $LQDT, $CCEL. These are all really good looking stocks that I’m interested in as long as they hold around the 200 day moving average or break to new highs. PEs are in the 20s & a possibility for rapid earnings appreciation.

Some stocks I’m curious about:

Travel Centers of America ($TA) vs. clean energy fuels ($CLNE)- I like the set up on $CLNE so checking out the valuation: it has a $2 billion market capitalization, and about $900 million in assets. If you take the maximum return on assets that Travel Centers of America earns and multiply that by the $900 million of assets you get something like $50 million of earnings which would put $CLNE at about 40 times earnings? I like $TA better as a buyout candidate maybe by Blink Charging stations? $TSLA? Who knows- the auto market, and thus the auto filling market are in flux. But I’ll pass and just watch both $TA & $CLNE for now.

Ethan Allen ($EA) vs. Restoration Hardware ($RH). RH is obviously fancier and gets a much higher multiple- it does have much trendier and more in fashion furniture and really sleek show rooms plus a lot of room for growth. I think this trend can catch on nationally and keep growing in the metropolitan areas. Ethan Allen has more traditional furniture in differentiates itself by its white glove install treatment which is not going to be desirable for anyone under the age of 40. But it is much safer because it’s been in business for so long and has absolutely no debt so I’d prefer Ethan Allen, but sporting a 20 PE multiple, I’ll just watch these two from the sidelines for now.

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