The job of the capital allocator is to discover assets of enduring value and put them into their proper place in the portfolio. The purpose of the capital allocator is to direct the accumulated labor surplus in a way that grows the future excess labor surplus and promotes human flourishing.
The coordinated efforts of central banks have made this task difficult for those who prefer objective truth to guide their discernment of proper capital allocation. But we cannot change the environment we live in so quickly as to just “wait it out” in order for wiser heads to prevail in making monetary policy.
So we must continue to stick to principles that guide us as to what constitutes enduring value, with the added understanding that we are doing so while the measuring stick of our efforts is fluid and morphing in real time.
All that has happened is safety in the game of allocation has been transubstantiated. The substance of what is “safety” has changed, while the form of it remains.
Safety used to be cash. Because cash was still something entirely physical. But perhaps the most unsettling aspect of modern, virtual cash is that it can be everywhere generally at once. Something that is everywhere is harder for the intellect to understand as being somewhere specifically. There was only one layer of abstraction from the number on a bank deposit account to the physical cash to facilitate the mental construct of safety being inherent in cash. Now that cash is something far more virtual than physical, our mental construct of the safety inherent in physical cash has been allowed to atrophy to the point that we are not really sure what is the value of the number on our screen that will likely be transferred to many different institutions in its lifetime but never transferred into the physical world.
Currently the environment is increasingly difficult for allocators of irreplaceable capital who seek truth to stay in safety. So the way out is not to abandon safety, but double down- to reassess what constitutes enduring value and the assets proper place in our portfolio.
It is a way of discipline. And it is a difficult path to follow when the climate is as inhospitable as it is now. But staying disciplined and remained loyal to the end is the only way to end up on the right side after the Apocalypse.